Absturz des Baltic Dry Index

Nie von gehört? Nun, bis gestern sagte mir das auch nichts 😉 Aber die Finanzkrise bietet massig Chancen, viel Neues über diese Welt zu lernen, nun, zumindest mir 😉

Gestern bin ich bei Daily Kos auf den Artikel „Two signs that something is seriously wrong“ gestoßen, der auf einen heftigen Absturz des Baltic Dry Index um 98% hinweist. (Nicht nur das, auch auf einiges anderes Interessantes.)

The price of the daily rental of a Capesize bulk carrier has collapsed from $234,000 to $5,611. I’m no expert on shipping, but I bet that the cost of fuel, insurance, maintenance, and crew salaries on a ship that large is about $5,600 a day. If there is no profit from moving these ships, then goods will not move.

Von $234,000 auf $5,611 – das muss man sich mal auf der Zunge zergehen lassen.

Als Ursache für diesen Absturz wird die Lage auf dem Finanzmarkt genannt.

Cargos are sitting on docksides because the finance is not available to ship them, with the gravest implications for the future. „This is a nuclear bomb in the freight market, and in world trade,“ Mr Kerr-Dineen said. „Liquidity has to return because if there is insufficient money to provide standard finance, world trade will be sharply cut back and economic growth will implode.“

Was ist daran nun so interessant?

Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

(Qelle: Wikipedia, Hervorhebung durch mich)

By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already delayed by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of credit meant the disappearance of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of future ship construction was also a problem for the companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications for shipyards. This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world’s marine commerce. Cheaper fuel was no longer able to offset this situation and global letters of credit are beyond the powers of the Federal Reserve.

(Qelle: Wikipedia)

Kurz: Da knirscht’s gewaltig im Gebälk…

Lest euch den Daily Kos Artikel mal ganz durch und schaut euch die schönen Bilder an 😉